but āActually, Russia does veto more!ā isnāt the interesting part.
Your words:
Because normal countries donāt see the veto as a first line of defense. In fact, normal countries donāt see the veto at all. SC vetos are not, as you present it, normal procedure for normal countries. Hell, even permanent SC members donāt just plop vetos willy-nilly.
I didnāt sneak it in, I wrote ādirectlyā because Israel has attacked Iran directly, and repeatedly.
Please refrain from moving goal posts. Your words:
Once again, youāre criticizing Iran for announcing destruction they havenāt actually done
ā¦implying Iran is only words but no actions. Although they very much act, but through the hands of their affiliated terror groups.
Frankly, I think they already have accepted it
Doesnāt sound like it, when youāre listening to their officials. Not now, not prior to Israelās attack. So whatās your basis for this assumption?
You ācan accept [ā¦] member states, facing exigent circumstances, themselves take matters into their own handsā, and that āexigent circumstancesā is defined by the mighty, āAs has been the case all alongā.
No. The existence of these exigent circumstances never was up for debate: the occurring ethnic cleansing was not a secret. It is not like those states made up a ātrust me broā story like for example the US did a couple of years later with Iraq. The UN knew about it but still wasnāt capable to act accordingly due to being deadlocked - yet again. Hence, as was the case numerous times before and will be the case countless times in the future, states acted on their own behalf. And in this case, I can understand it, as, weāve been through this before, the existing exigent circumstances called for immediate action. I donāt see the same quality of reasons when Russia, because it can, invades Ukraine, or the US, because it can, decides to abduct Maduro.
The main problem I have is that the UN, due to this veto architecture, is not capable of responding appropriately in situations where it, as the guardian and agent of the international law we once agreed upon, should defend this law specifically. Thereās a backdoor for certain countries to hinder, stop, override the actions of the UN. But not for others, rendering these principles undemocratic and useless.
so you accept might to make right sometimes, but other times, nations must be limited and not do as they please.
Most of the times, nations must be limited and not do as they please. But that mechanism isnāt here. A group of nations CAN do just as they please. For decades. And right now, they are as unhinged as ever, showing us that they no longer care what we think about that.
And itās not a competition, but a comparison.
Time and time again, I see arguments made by what Iām sure are people who consider themselves egalitarian, that basically boil down to āthe good guys should just kill all the bad guysā
Fine. But since I never made that claim, please donāt vent that frustration on me. I told you what Iām criticising - the general principle irrespective of who is using it - and how little this has to do with the whole tribalistic competition between the badness of the individual actors of the Middle East conflict ā¦ Frankly, these are the most toxic and useless discussions to be had on the internet. Iām really not interested.
However, to prevent enforcement turning into Another Other Big One, the major powers were given the veto, to block actions that would end with them fighting eachother.
But what has that given us? In a world full of nukes, these countries wouldnāt fight directly with each other anyway. As, luckily, no-one is keen on fighting a war that canāt be won. On the other hand though, these countries effectively received a perpetual get-out-of-jail card. This card frees them from consequences from their own actions, frees them from the need to compromise. All of which the other countries that werenāt as privileged didnāt receive. So we have a two-class system: the vast group of commoners that must play along nicely or sufficiently suck up to one of the elites to be protected (fueling political bloc formation), and the elites that can choose how much they want to play along. At the same time, this severely undermines and even destroys the effectiveness of international law, as it can at any point be halted/stalled by these countries and they canāt be held responsible. It is a flaw that must be fixed, should the whole construct of international law have any form of future.
Worse yet, if a country breaks the law, then hides under a veto to get away with it, the veto itself is still the same as a regular veto stonewall, but instead of freezing an issue or kicking the can down the road, it has turned into an āI can do what i wantā card. If the lawbreaking continues, and thereās no response, countries will eventually decide there are no laws and go rogue, until theyāre either brought back in line or the line disappears. It wonāt happen instantly, but every time it happens the community gets a little bit closer to falling apart. And if it does, youāre back to might-makes-right, at least until another war reminds everyone why we made the system in the first place.
My point exactly.
āI find this decision, that the majority of the council agrees with, so unacceptable that I am considering going to war over this!ā
(X) Doubt. And big time! Look at the linked source. Most of the first 30ish? vetoes were about countriesā membership applications. This was pure tactical political power play to secure/gain majorities but nothing you actually would send your tank for against the other political bloc.
we now have a situation of the international community facing at least two veto powers wilding out. This is not good.
Yes. Exactly. Being a veto power is a privilege and should be honoured accordingly by the nations holding this privilege. I can see that less and less.
I take a dim view of āyes, itās illegal, but itās the right thing to doā.
It depends on the circumstances. And, letās be real, most donāt really care about these but rather only about whoās doing it. Back at the tribalistic m.o. For some, it is just fundamentally wrong because it was āNATOā/āthe USā and they build their entire (political) world view around the core principle of opposing them. Iām not implying youāre one of them, but I guess youāll know what kind of people I mean. On the other hand, youāve got those that cheer for the US whatever they do. Who donāt care about the countries on the receiving end of US military ambitions, because it is the land of the free bringing democracy. But weāre speaking about this case specifically, and I really have to say, given these specific circumstances, I can understand why NATO did what they did.
Itās also why I have more patience with countries that operate by supporting their enemiesā enemies, instead of blowing up embassies and murdering negotiators outright.
Well. I donāt. Because Iām certain its not their determination holding them back but their possibilities. An Iran with the political and military possibilities of the US wouldnāt resort to funding terrorist groups in the counties neighbouring their enemy. Similarly, if Trump was āonlyā the president of a US with the strength and the possibilities of Iran, he couldnāt kidnap Maduro with impunity or bomb other countries just as he pleases. He also would have to resort to stirring up as much dirt with the means he has at hands. But his goals and ambitions would remain the same power-hungry, criminal and outright unhinged. Same with the Mullahs.
Correct. The amounts used donāt affect any of that.
Please refrain from moving goal posts.
Likewise. My claim isnāt that they did nothing, but that what they do do doesnāt look like an attempt at nation-destruction in any serious way. If they did, it would look likeā¦ well, what Israel is doing to them right now. So, yknow, doing it again.
The existence of these exigent circumstances never was up for debate: [ā¦] I donāt see the same quality of reasons when Russia, because it can, invades Ukraine, or the US, because it can, decides to abduct Maduro.
And thatās the thing. You see the quality then, but not later. Thatās the entire problem. You may see abducting Maduro as gross breach of sovereignty, but from what Iāve seen, quite a lot of EU heads of state are of the āwell, dictator, illegitimateā opinion. You may see the Russian invasion as a direct waging of aggressive war, but ever since 2008, Russia more or less structures itās justifications as mirrors of the NATO one and going āWhat, you did it too!ā. Hell, right now, the US and Israel are engaged in a war that they canāt even give an excuse for, and Carney, who just came back from Davos and the āremove the sign from the windowā speech put the sign right back were it was. Your entire argument works perfectly as long as thereās either an absolute judge of right, or a universal agreement of what right is, but if that were true that consensus would be law and there wouldnāt be a need to break the law in the first place.
The main problem I have is that the UN, due to this veto architecture, is not capable of responding appropriately in situations where it, as the guardian and agent of the international law we once agreed upon, should defend this law specifically. Thereās a backdoor for certain countries to hinder, stop, override the actions of the UN. But not for others, rendering these principles undemocratic and useless.
This is a fair complaint. But I point again to the problem it was trying to solve: to make a UN, you have to convince countries to give up some of their sovereignty to an external force. The League of Nations failed because A) a bunch of countries left the minute they didnāt like a ruling, and B) a bunch didnāt even join because they didnāt wanna risk even getting to that point. The veto was a way to coax them into the community and get them to see the value in staying, instead of taking their toys and leaving. And if that sounds fucked to you, Iād point out that the issue right now is they decided even that was too restrictive.
so you accept might to make right sometimes, but other times, nations must be limited and not do as they please.
Most of the times, nations must be limited and not do as they please. But that mechanism isnāt here. A group of nations CAN do just as they please. For decades. And right now, they are as unhinged as ever, showing us that they no longer care what we think about that.
Iā¦ no. The ābutā there doesnāt do anything. The rest of the statement is unrelated to the first sentence, and the first sentence is what Iām pointing at. You say you care about the underlying mechanisms, but I donāt see you making the connection here.
But what has that given us? In a world full of nukes, these countries wouldnāt fight directly with each other anyway. As, luckily, no-one is keen on fighting a war that canāt be won.
Ouf, this is a very dangerous assumption, particularly in a world where one of those powers has an unofficial-official policy of āweāre taking you all with usā and two are run by geriatrics who clearly havenāt made peace with their own mortality, one of whichās warchief just said theyāre doing Armageddon to bring Jesus back. Not to mention, if taken for granted, it would mean that any country with a nuke is incentivized to immediately get troops involved into any dispute that may interest another power, just to mark the territory.
My point exactly.
But the nuance I was making is this part: āthe veto itself is still the sameā. The fundamental problem that makes vetos broken, from a systems standpoint, is the law-breaking. It alone is not exactly fantastic, but is limited. Itās the second part that turns it gamebreaking.
(X) Doubt. And big time! Look at the linked source. Most of the first 30ish? vetoes were about countriesā membership applications. This was pure tactical political power play to secure/gain majorities but nothing you actually would send your tank for against the other political bloc.
āJainā. Itās an announcement, it could be a bluff, might not.
It depends on the circumstances.
The problem with this is the same as with the āmostlyā above. Though I am reminded of an old Chris Rock routine (no, not that one) where he talks about OJ and the murder of his wife, and the repeating punchline is āNow Iām not saying he shouldāve done it, but I understandā. Thereās a big gap between āI understandā and āhe shouldāve done itā.
Well. I donāt. Because Iām certain its not their determination holding them back but their possibilities. An Iran with the political and military possibilities of the US wouldnāt resort to funding terrorist groups in the counties neighbouring their enemy. Similarly, if Trump was āonlyā the president of a US with the strength and the possibilities of Iran, he couldnāt kidnap Maduro with impunity or bomb other countries just as he pleases. He also would have to resort to stirring up as much dirt with the means he has at hands. But his goals and ambitions would remain the same power-hungry, criminal and outright unhinged. Same with the Mullahs.
ā¦Iām tempted to say āyouāre doing it againā again, but actually this poses an interesting question: say, for example, Iran had US military possibilities. Like, somewhere in 2024, they somehow get ahold of, IDK, a US carrier group or two, and then proceed to use it to bomb Israel to force them to get out of Gaza and retreatā¦ letās say back into the 1967 borders. Would you approve?
Correct. The amounts used donāt affect any of that.
Again, your words:
SC vetos are not, as you present it, normal procedure for normal countries.
Frankly, graph and link show that this is not true.
My claim isnāt that they did nothing, but that what they do do doesnāt look like an attempt at nation-destruction in any serious way. If they did, it would look likeā¦ well, what Israel is doing to them right now.
Youāre mixing up aspiration and possibilities.
And thatās the thing. You see the quality then, but not later. Thatās the entire problem. You may see abducting Maduro as gross breach of sovereignty, but from what Iāve seen, quite a lot of EU heads of state are of the āwell, dictator, illegitimateā opinion. You may see the Russian invasion as a direct waging of aggressive war, but ever since 2008, Russia more or less structures itās justifications as mirrors of the NATO one and going āWhat, you did it too!ā.
NATO 1999: evident violations of basic human rights. Do you agree?
Maduro: IS a dictator and IS illegitimate, but still I say abducting him like that is wrong.
Russia: NATO or any of its member states didnāt invade a neighbouring country in the biggest war since WW2 in order to annex and expand the own borders. I know too well that Russia and their sycophants love to play that ājust mirroring NATO!!1ā card as a shabby veil to hide their indigenous blatant imperialism under. But that āargumentā has always just been a steaming pile of bs.
And if that sounds fucked to you, Iād point out that the issue right now is they decided even that was too restrictive.
It isnāt restrictive as it didnāt hinder them to do what they wanted to do all along. Rather, in a world of Putins and Trumps, no side is trying to be the ābetterā side by following the rules - more or less. Instead, they released all brakes and donāt care anymore. Yes, I understood your explanation on why the UN was designed that way, but that cannot be the end of the story. Especially, after seeing what kind of problems come along with it. This thing needs to be further evolved instead of just saying: well, it is what it is. Otherwise, as can be seen right now, the whole thing will go down.
Ouf, this is a very dangerous assumption, particularly in a world where one of those powers has an unofficial-official policy of āweāre taking you all with usā and two are run by geriatrics who clearly havenāt made peace with their own mortality, one of whichās warchief just said theyāre doing Armageddon to bring Jesus back. Not to mention, if taken for granted, it would mean that any country with a nuke is incentivized to immediately get troops involved into any dispute that may interest another power, just to mark the territory.
Well, it is a dangerous world we live in, merely hanging by a thread. No point hiding from that hard truth. The only thing keeping us kinda safe is that neither of these geriatrics has the power to completely single-handedly actually fire the nukes. Thereās other people in the lines of command from his button to the ship/silo carrying the warhead that the lunacy of only one mustnāt necessarily mean the end of us all. But a UN, which especially is toothless against the veto peers, is of no use for the disputes between the nuclear elite.
The fundamental problem that makes vetos broken, from a systems standpoint, is the law-breaking.
Since weāre eventually deal with people here, there will always be the drive to test out boundaries. If thereās the possibility, there will be law-breaking. Hence, since the law-breaking will occur, you must ensure that it can be punished.
Itās an announcement, it could be a bluff, might not.
An announcement must be treated as a veto. Otherwise, thereās no point announcing it.
Thereās a big gap between āI understandā and āhe shouldāve done itā.
Well. In a world with the UN working the way it does (or rather doesnāt), weāll face that dilemma time and time again. Instead of reacting to urgent causes like violation of human rights, we will argue about the existence of these urgent causes, their legitimacy, who brought them forward, what they might gain from it, etcā¦ but we wonāt respond to it, helping those in need. As said, I made my choice regarding this specific intervention - knowing that Iād also prefer a system that would actually work internationally and would abolish the need (and possibility) of unilateral action. But until we have thatā¦
Would you approve?
That largely depends on what you mean by āapproveā and the actual bombing done. Carpet-bombing Israeli cities to kill as many āJewish infidelsā as possible wonāt find my āapprovalā, especially as in advocating, ever. But an hypothetical Iran without the wish to simply annihilate Israel targetting IDF and other legitimate targets to get them to retreat to their international borders, I could āapproveā, as in I understand why they did it - same as I understand why NATO bombed Yugoslavia.
Frankly, graph and link show that this is not true.
The countries on that graph, by virtue of being on that graph, are not normal countries. That precisely was my point.
Youāre mixing up aspiration and possibilities.
Possibly, but right now, one of the two countries you brought up talks about destruction, and the other is currently, as we speak, bombing desalination plants. If the possibilities were different, maybe the aspirations would be as well.
Do you agree?
And thatās the thing: What if I donāt? The inherent problem remains: if the kind of consensus you assume were real, it would just be law.
Yes, I understood your explanation on why the UN was designed that way, but that cannot be the end of the story.
That much is, at least, clear, the way things worked so far is pretty much over. Unless youāre Mark Carney, apparently.
Thereās other people in the lines of command
From what Iāve seen these āother peopleā go through with in just the last week or two, Iām not exactly heartened.
Since weāre eventually deal with people here, there will always be the drive to test out boundaries. If thereās the possibility, there will be law-breaking. Hence, since the law-breaking will occur, you must ensure that it can be punished.
Fully agree. But punishing law-breaking by breaking the law is just the Dirty Harry thing again.
An announcement must be treated as a veto. Otherwise, thereās no point announcing it.
ā¦Yes?
That largely depends on what you mean by āapproveā and the actual bombing done. Carpet-bombing Israeli cities to kill as many āJewish infidelsā as possible wonāt find my āapprovalā, especially as in advocating, ever. But an hypothetical Iran without the wish to simply annihilate Israel targetting IDF and other legitimate targets to get them to retreat to their international borders, I could āapproveā, as in I understand why they did it - same as I understand why NATO bombed Yugoslavia.
Reasonable. Now, suppose they donāt have that kind of muscle, and instead all they can do is, IDK, try and muster a bunch of regional, allied or loosely affiliated militias to maybe try and enforce a half-blockade of shipping through the Red Sea, or maybe attack a few army outposts on the opposite end of the countryā¦
The countries on that graph, by virtue of being on that graph, are not normal countries. That precisely was my point.
Of course they are not normal countries - but vastly privileged ones. Exactly the point Iām trying to convey. Why would we talk about ānormalā countries here, when the veto is exclusively available to these few? And - thatās the point of the graph and the linked list - these few privileged countries made ample use of their veto power. Even for trivia such as admitting country xyz to the UN - a question neither of them would go to war for with each other. Have we settled this point?
one of the two countries you brought up talks about destruction
That is again severely downplaying the actions of Iran. Iran has actively funded, equipped, supportedā¦ terrorist groups that spread terror, death and destruction over Israel for decades. Given the situation Iran is in, they are putting a lot of effort into the cause of fighting Israel as a country, with the clear stated goal to do so to destroy it. I really donāt get why you wouldnāt acknowledge that, as it doesnāt take anything away from Israel being wrong for their own actions. You literally donāt lose anything, you still can criticise Israel for everything theyāre responsible of.
And thatās the thing: What if I donāt?
You wouldnāt agree that there were violations of basic human rights occurring there? Are you really sure?
if the kind of consensus you assume were real, it would just be law.
It already is law. Just the body destined to enforce it has been stripped of the full authority to do so. We gave ourselves a police but allowed the biggest land owners to prohibit them access to their property whenever they feel like it and irrespective of what violations of these laws they do.
From what Iāve seen these āother peopleā go through with in just the last week or two, Iām not exactly heartened.
Thereās a very strong difference in going through with dropping bombs targetted to buildings of an enemy army, knowing the destruction will be limited to a couple of hundred metres at worst, and going through with launching weapons that will inevitably not only end the enemy but also you and your family, the entire world. Donāt you think?
But punishing law-breaking by breaking the law is just the Dirty Harry thing again.
Just watching the law-breaking idly is also just Dirty Harry. Only that you chose to accept your fate of being object to the lawlessness of the others. Why would a country do that?
ā¦Yes?
Well, you said āāJainā. Itās an announcement, it could be a bluff, might not.ā to me raising the point that the veto powers used their vetos for tactical political power play rather than solely serious matters theyād actually be ready to go to war over. To which I reply that an announcement must be treated as a veto, hence it only works if the other side musnāt see it as a bluff. Otherwise, the point of the announcement vanishes.
Now, suppose they donāt have that kind of muscle, and instead all they can do is, IDK, try and muster a bunch of regional, allied or loosely affiliated militias to maybe try and enforce a half-blockade of shipping through the Red Sea, or maybe attack a few army outposts on the opposite end of the countryā¦
ā¦except they did that - using allied militias/terrorist groups under their guidance and equipment - for decades already, while Israel decided it would be a smart move to bomb the whole country - to achieve what? - last week. Normally, a reaction comes after the action. And thatās exactly my problem in that entire conflict. People love to paint a conflict black and white that is filled to the brim with a plethora of entangled shades.
Of course they are not normal countries - but vastly privileged ones. Exactly the point Iām trying to convey. Why would we talk about ānormalā countries here, when the veto is exclusively available to these few? And - thatās the point of the graph and the linked list - these few privileged countries made ample use of their veto power.
Because the original remark was āexplicit protection of one of the big veto powers, be it Iran and Russia or Israel and the USā, and my whole point is one of those countries is normal, two arenāt, and the last one should be normal, but very much is not. So when you put the four in a sentence, it sounds reasonable to assume everyone can call on a veto whenever, when, in fact, the odd one out is the only one thatās not an outlier.
Even for trivia such as admitting country xyz to the UN - a question neither of them would go to war for with each other. Have we settled this point?
This is a digression, but: this is not trivia. Accession control is vote control. Also, a legitimacy claim. I can only imagine Chinaās reaction to Taiwan getting back in.
That is again severely downplaying the actions of Iran. Iran has actively funded, equipped, supportedā¦ terrorist groups that spread terror, death and destruction over Israel for decades. Given the situation Iran is in, they are putting a lot of effort into the cause of fighting Israel as a country, with the clear stated goal to do so to destroy it. I really donāt get why you wouldnāt acknowledge that, as it doesnāt take anything away from Israel being wrong for their own actions. You literally donāt lose anything, you still can criticise Israel for everything theyāre responsible of.
Because I donāt think youāre being even-handed, so Iām trying to knock you out of the talking points and put you into the other sideās shoes. For exampleā¦
ā¦except they did that - using allied militias/terrorist groups under their guidance and equipment - for decades already, while Israel decided it would be a smart move to bomb the whole country - to achieve what? - last week. Normally, a reaction comes after the action. And thatās exactly my problem in that entire conflict. People love to paint a conflict black and white that is filled to the brim with a plethora of entangled shades.
ā¦the āactionā only happened last week, but the hypothetical wasnāt about self-defense, it was about illegal intervention in prevention of gross human rights violations. Those didnāt begin last week, did they? Or, in fact, was Iran really only attacked last week?
You wouldnāt agree that there were violations of basic human rights occurring there? Are you really sure?
Oh, there were. I was replying to the whole block with the question.
We gave ourselves a police but allowed the biggest land owners to prohibit them access to their property whenever they feel like it and irrespective of what violations of these laws they do.
ā¦Well, the police shouldnāt be able to just access your property, not without a warrant. That some fatcats are warrant-proof is true, though.
Thereās a very strong difference in going through with dropping bombs targetted to buildings of an enemy army, knowing the destruction will be limited to a couple of hundred metres at worst, and going through with launching weapons that will inevitably not only end the enemy but also you and your family, the entire world. Donāt you think?
IDK, theyāre already making excuses, whatās one more? In fact, we already have one: Jesus is coming back, you wonāt die, youāll be raptured! Like, this isnāt just bad governance, these people act like a fucking apocalypse cult.
Just watching the law-breaking idly is also just Dirty Harry.
Well, more like the Uvalde cops, I guess. Or those cops in that town run by scientologists.
be it Iran and Russia or Israel and the USā, and my whole point is one of those countries is normal, two arenāt, and the last one should be normal, but very much is not.
Frankly, none of these countries is normal at all. It is a bit concerning that you apparently think otherwise.
So when you put the four in a sentence, it sounds reasonable to assume everyone can call on a veto whenever
Not everyone, but two of these CAN call a veto whenever, to the benefit of whoeverā¦ Why should we pretend it isnāt so? Again, while youāre apparently very much focussed on who actually used the veto when, I am not. I am criticising the fact that the mere possibility exists.
This is a digression, but: this is not trivia. Accession control is vote control.
Yeaā¦ pretty hard to establish an international institution to handle international relation between countries if you end up using your vetos for countries you donāt even have any direct dispute with just to mess with your opponent. Political power play, no reason to actually go to war over.
Or, in fact, was Iran really only attacked last week?
Was Iran attacked by Israel before they started to fund and steer all of their terror pawns in Arab countries several decades ago? Before they announced their objective to eliminate Israel?
That some fatcats are warrant-proof is true, though.
ā¦and these fatcats can extend their shield against any warrant to anyone. That is a problem.
IDK, theyāre already making excuses, whatās one more?
Talk is cheap. Actually pushing the button that will end the wold isnāt.
Frankly, none of these countries is normal at all. It is a bit concerning that you apparently think otherwise.
Normal isnāt a compliment here, it just means theyāre not too far outside of what you run into out there, at least foreign policy-wise. For example, Pakistan springs to mind: fundamentalists with a vendetta, terrorists, and a nuclear program. Sounds about right.
Not everyone, but two of these CAN call a veto whenever, to the benefit of whoeverā¦ Why should we pretend it isnāt so? Again, while youāre apparently very much focussed on who actually used the veto when, I am not. I am criticising the fact that the mere possibility exists.
ā¦Honestly, I was gonna say overuse would render it meaningless, but with the last week being what it is, It may very well be moot at this point.
Was Iran attacked by Israel before they started to fund and steer all of their terror pawns in Arab countries several decades ago? Before they announced their objective to eliminate Israel?
Milosevic didnāt attack NATO either. Once again, the hypothetical wasnāt about self-defense. It was about illegal intervention in prevention of gross human rights violations.
Your words:
Please refrain from moving goal posts. Your words:
ā¦implying Iran is only words but no actions. Although they very much act, but through the hands of their affiliated terror groups.
Doesnāt sound like it, when youāre listening to their officials. Not now, not prior to Israelās attack. So whatās your basis for this assumption?
No. The existence of these exigent circumstances never was up for debate: the occurring ethnic cleansing was not a secret. It is not like those states made up a ātrust me broā story like for example the US did a couple of years later with Iraq. The UN knew about it but still wasnāt capable to act accordingly due to being deadlocked - yet again. Hence, as was the case numerous times before and will be the case countless times in the future, states acted on their own behalf. And in this case, I can understand it, as, weāve been through this before, the existing exigent circumstances called for immediate action. I donāt see the same quality of reasons when Russia, because it can, invades Ukraine, or the US, because it can, decides to abduct Maduro.
The main problem I have is that the UN, due to this veto architecture, is not capable of responding appropriately in situations where it, as the guardian and agent of the international law we once agreed upon, should defend this law specifically. Thereās a backdoor for certain countries to hinder, stop, override the actions of the UN. But not for others, rendering these principles undemocratic and useless.
Most of the times, nations must be limited and not do as they please. But that mechanism isnāt here. A group of nations CAN do just as they please. For decades. And right now, they are as unhinged as ever, showing us that they no longer care what we think about that.
Fine. But since I never made that claim, please donāt vent that frustration on me. I told you what Iām criticising - the general principle irrespective of who is using it - and how little this has to do with the whole tribalistic competition between the badness of the individual actors of the Middle East conflict ā¦ Frankly, these are the most toxic and useless discussions to be had on the internet. Iām really not interested.
But what has that given us? In a world full of nukes, these countries wouldnāt fight directly with each other anyway. As, luckily, no-one is keen on fighting a war that canāt be won. On the other hand though, these countries effectively received a perpetual get-out-of-jail card. This card frees them from consequences from their own actions, frees them from the need to compromise. All of which the other countries that werenāt as privileged didnāt receive. So we have a two-class system: the vast group of commoners that must play along nicely or sufficiently suck up to one of the elites to be protected (fueling political bloc formation), and the elites that can choose how much they want to play along. At the same time, this severely undermines and even destroys the effectiveness of international law, as it can at any point be halted/stalled by these countries and they canāt be held responsible. It is a flaw that must be fixed, should the whole construct of international law have any form of future.
My point exactly.
(X) Doubt. And big time! Look at the linked source. Most of the first 30ish? vetoes were about countriesā membership applications. This was pure tactical political power play to secure/gain majorities but nothing you actually would send your tank for against the other political bloc.
Yes. Exactly. Being a veto power is a privilege and should be honoured accordingly by the nations holding this privilege. I can see that less and less.
It depends on the circumstances. And, letās be real, most donāt really care about these but rather only about whoās doing it. Back at the tribalistic m.o. For some, it is just fundamentally wrong because it was āNATOā/āthe USā and they build their entire (political) world view around the core principle of opposing them. Iām not implying youāre one of them, but I guess youāll know what kind of people I mean. On the other hand, youāve got those that cheer for the US whatever they do. Who donāt care about the countries on the receiving end of US military ambitions, because it is the land of the free bringing democracy. But weāre speaking about this case specifically, and I really have to say, given these specific circumstances, I can understand why NATO did what they did.
Well. I donāt. Because Iām certain its not their determination holding them back but their possibilities. An Iran with the political and military possibilities of the US wouldnāt resort to funding terrorist groups in the counties neighbouring their enemy. Similarly, if Trump was āonlyā the president of a US with the strength and the possibilities of Iran, he couldnāt kidnap Maduro with impunity or bomb other countries just as he pleases. He also would have to resort to stirring up as much dirt with the means he has at hands. But his goals and ambitions would remain the same power-hungry, criminal and outright unhinged. Same with the Mullahs.
Correct. The amounts used donāt affect any of that.
Likewise. My claim isnāt that they did nothing, but that what they do do doesnāt look like an attempt at nation-destruction in any serious way. If they did, it would look likeā¦ well, what Israel is doing to them right now. So, yknow, doing it again.
And thatās the thing. You see the quality then, but not later. Thatās the entire problem. You may see abducting Maduro as gross breach of sovereignty, but from what Iāve seen, quite a lot of EU heads of state are of the āwell, dictator, illegitimateā opinion. You may see the Russian invasion as a direct waging of aggressive war, but ever since 2008, Russia more or less structures itās justifications as mirrors of the NATO one and going āWhat, you did it too!ā. Hell, right now, the US and Israel are engaged in a war that they canāt even give an excuse for, and Carney, who just came back from Davos and the āremove the sign from the windowā speech put the sign right back were it was. Your entire argument works perfectly as long as thereās either an absolute judge of right, or a universal agreement of what right is, but if that were true that consensus would be law and there wouldnāt be a need to break the law in the first place.
This is a fair complaint. But I point again to the problem it was trying to solve: to make a UN, you have to convince countries to give up some of their sovereignty to an external force. The League of Nations failed because A) a bunch of countries left the minute they didnāt like a ruling, and B) a bunch didnāt even join because they didnāt wanna risk even getting to that point. The veto was a way to coax them into the community and get them to see the value in staying, instead of taking their toys and leaving. And if that sounds fucked to you, Iād point out that the issue right now is they decided even that was too restrictive.
Iā¦ no. The ābutā there doesnāt do anything. The rest of the statement is unrelated to the first sentence, and the first sentence is what Iām pointing at. You say you care about the underlying mechanisms, but I donāt see you making the connection here.
Ouf, this is a very dangerous assumption, particularly in a world where one of those powers has an unofficial-official policy of āweāre taking you all with usā and two are run by geriatrics who clearly havenāt made peace with their own mortality, one of whichās warchief just said theyāre doing Armageddon to bring Jesus back. Not to mention, if taken for granted, it would mean that any country with a nuke is incentivized to immediately get troops involved into any dispute that may interest another power, just to mark the territory.
But the nuance I was making is this part: āthe veto itself is still the sameā. The fundamental problem that makes vetos broken, from a systems standpoint, is the law-breaking. It alone is not exactly fantastic, but is limited. Itās the second part that turns it gamebreaking.
āJainā. Itās an announcement, it could be a bluff, might not.
The problem with this is the same as with the āmostlyā above. Though I am reminded of an old Chris Rock routine (no, not that one) where he talks about OJ and the murder of his wife, and the repeating punchline is āNow Iām not saying he shouldāve done it, but I understandā. Thereās a big gap between āI understandā and āhe shouldāve done itā.
ā¦Iām tempted to say āyouāre doing it againā again, but actually this poses an interesting question: say, for example, Iran had US military possibilities. Like, somewhere in 2024, they somehow get ahold of, IDK, a US carrier group or two, and then proceed to use it to bomb Israel to force them to get out of Gaza and retreatā¦ letās say back into the 1967 borders. Would you approve?
Again, your words:
Frankly, graph and link show that this is not true.
Youāre mixing up aspiration and possibilities.
NATO 1999: evident violations of basic human rights. Do you agree?
Maduro: IS a dictator and IS illegitimate, but still I say abducting him like that is wrong.
Russia: NATO or any of its member states didnāt invade a neighbouring country in the biggest war since WW2 in order to annex and expand the own borders. I know too well that Russia and their sycophants love to play that ājust mirroring NATO!!1ā card as a shabby veil to hide their indigenous blatant imperialism under. But that āargumentā has always just been a steaming pile of bs.
It isnāt restrictive as it didnāt hinder them to do what they wanted to do all along. Rather, in a world of Putins and Trumps, no side is trying to be the ābetterā side by following the rules - more or less. Instead, they released all brakes and donāt care anymore. Yes, I understood your explanation on why the UN was designed that way, but that cannot be the end of the story. Especially, after seeing what kind of problems come along with it. This thing needs to be further evolved instead of just saying: well, it is what it is. Otherwise, as can be seen right now, the whole thing will go down.
Well, it is a dangerous world we live in, merely hanging by a thread. No point hiding from that hard truth. The only thing keeping us kinda safe is that neither of these geriatrics has the power to completely single-handedly actually fire the nukes. Thereās other people in the lines of command from his button to the ship/silo carrying the warhead that the lunacy of only one mustnāt necessarily mean the end of us all. But a UN, which especially is toothless against the veto peers, is of no use for the disputes between the nuclear elite.
Since weāre eventually deal with people here, there will always be the drive to test out boundaries. If thereās the possibility, there will be law-breaking. Hence, since the law-breaking will occur, you must ensure that it can be punished.
An announcement must be treated as a veto. Otherwise, thereās no point announcing it.
Well. In a world with the UN working the way it does (or rather doesnāt), weāll face that dilemma time and time again. Instead of reacting to urgent causes like violation of human rights, we will argue about the existence of these urgent causes, their legitimacy, who brought them forward, what they might gain from it, etcā¦ but we wonāt respond to it, helping those in need. As said, I made my choice regarding this specific intervention - knowing that Iād also prefer a system that would actually work internationally and would abolish the need (and possibility) of unilateral action. But until we have thatā¦
That largely depends on what you mean by āapproveā and the actual bombing done. Carpet-bombing Israeli cities to kill as many āJewish infidelsā as possible wonāt find my āapprovalā, especially as in advocating, ever. But an hypothetical Iran without the wish to simply annihilate Israel targetting IDF and other legitimate targets to get them to retreat to their international borders, I could āapproveā, as in I understand why they did it - same as I understand why NATO bombed Yugoslavia.
The countries on that graph, by virtue of being on that graph, are not normal countries. That precisely was my point.
Possibly, but right now, one of the two countries you brought up talks about destruction, and the other is currently, as we speak, bombing desalination plants. If the possibilities were different, maybe the aspirations would be as well.
And thatās the thing: What if I donāt? The inherent problem remains: if the kind of consensus you assume were real, it would just be law.
That much is, at least, clear, the way things worked so far is pretty much over. Unless youāre Mark Carney, apparently.
From what Iāve seen these āother peopleā go through with in just the last week or two, Iām not exactly heartened.
Fully agree. But punishing law-breaking by breaking the law is just the Dirty Harry thing again.
ā¦Yes?
Reasonable. Now, suppose they donāt have that kind of muscle, and instead all they can do is, IDK, try and muster a bunch of regional, allied or loosely affiliated militias to maybe try and enforce a half-blockade of shipping through the Red Sea, or maybe attack a few army outposts on the opposite end of the countryā¦
Of course they are not normal countries - but vastly privileged ones. Exactly the point Iām trying to convey. Why would we talk about ānormalā countries here, when the veto is exclusively available to these few? And - thatās the point of the graph and the linked list - these few privileged countries made ample use of their veto power. Even for trivia such as admitting country xyz to the UN - a question neither of them would go to war for with each other. Have we settled this point?
That is again severely downplaying the actions of Iran. Iran has actively funded, equipped, supportedā¦ terrorist groups that spread terror, death and destruction over Israel for decades. Given the situation Iran is in, they are putting a lot of effort into the cause of fighting Israel as a country, with the clear stated goal to do so to destroy it. I really donāt get why you wouldnāt acknowledge that, as it doesnāt take anything away from Israel being wrong for their own actions. You literally donāt lose anything, you still can criticise Israel for everything theyāre responsible of.
You wouldnāt agree that there were violations of basic human rights occurring there? Are you really sure?
It already is law. Just the body destined to enforce it has been stripped of the full authority to do so. We gave ourselves a police but allowed the biggest land owners to prohibit them access to their property whenever they feel like it and irrespective of what violations of these laws they do.
Thereās a very strong difference in going through with dropping bombs targetted to buildings of an enemy army, knowing the destruction will be limited to a couple of hundred metres at worst, and going through with launching weapons that will inevitably not only end the enemy but also you and your family, the entire world. Donāt you think?
Just watching the law-breaking idly is also just Dirty Harry. Only that you chose to accept your fate of being object to the lawlessness of the others. Why would a country do that?
Well, you said āāJainā. Itās an announcement, it could be a bluff, might not.ā to me raising the point that the veto powers used their vetos for tactical political power play rather than solely serious matters theyād actually be ready to go to war over. To which I reply that an announcement must be treated as a veto, hence it only works if the other side musnāt see it as a bluff. Otherwise, the point of the announcement vanishes.
ā¦except they did that - using allied militias/terrorist groups under their guidance and equipment - for decades already, while Israel decided it would be a smart move to bomb the whole country - to achieve what? - last week. Normally, a reaction comes after the action. And thatās exactly my problem in that entire conflict. People love to paint a conflict black and white that is filled to the brim with a plethora of entangled shades.
Because the original remark was āexplicit protection of one of the big veto powers, be it Iran and Russia or Israel and the USā, and my whole point is one of those countries is normal, two arenāt, and the last one should be normal, but very much is not. So when you put the four in a sentence, it sounds reasonable to assume everyone can call on a veto whenever, when, in fact, the odd one out is the only one thatās not an outlier.
This is a digression, but: this is not trivia. Accession control is vote control. Also, a legitimacy claim. I can only imagine Chinaās reaction to Taiwan getting back in.
Because I donāt think youāre being even-handed, so Iām trying to knock you out of the talking points and put you into the other sideās shoes. For exampleā¦
ā¦the āactionā only happened last week, but the hypothetical wasnāt about self-defense, it was about illegal intervention in prevention of gross human rights violations. Those didnāt begin last week, did they? Or, in fact, was Iran really only attacked last week?
Oh, there were. I was replying to the whole block with the question.
ā¦Well, the police shouldnāt be able to just access your property, not without a warrant. That some fatcats are warrant-proof is true, though.
IDK, theyāre already making excuses, whatās one more? In fact, we already have one: Jesus is coming back, you wonāt die, youāll be raptured! Like, this isnāt just bad governance, these people act like a fucking apocalypse cult.
Well, more like the Uvalde cops, I guess. Or those cops in that town run by scientologists.
Ah. Yes, exactly, I agree.
Frankly, none of these countries is normal at all. It is a bit concerning that you apparently think otherwise.
Not everyone, but two of these CAN call a veto whenever, to the benefit of whoeverā¦ Why should we pretend it isnāt so? Again, while youāre apparently very much focussed on who actually used the veto when, I am not. I am criticising the fact that the mere possibility exists.
Yeaā¦ pretty hard to establish an international institution to handle international relation between countries if you end up using your vetos for countries you donāt even have any direct dispute with just to mess with your opponent. Political power play, no reason to actually go to war over.
Was Iran attacked by Israel before they started to fund and steer all of their terror pawns in Arab countries several decades ago? Before they announced their objective to eliminate Israel?
ā¦and these fatcats can extend their shield against any warrant to anyone. That is a problem.
Talk is cheap. Actually pushing the button that will end the wold isnāt.
Normal isnāt a compliment here, it just means theyāre not too far outside of what you run into out there, at least foreign policy-wise. For example, Pakistan springs to mind: fundamentalists with a vendetta, terrorists, and a nuclear program. Sounds about right.
ā¦Honestly, I was gonna say overuse would render it meaningless, but with the last week being what it is, It may very well be moot at this point.
Milosevic didnāt attack NATO either. Once again, the hypothetical wasnāt about self-defense. It was about illegal intervention in prevention of gross human rights violations.
That wasnāt the question, though. You said:
ā¦which begs this aforementioned follow-up question.