Those states are, LOL were, massive agricultural exporters, doubt other states with more flexible economies will get hit that hard. A 6% nationwide reduction would be absolute chaos. 2008 was “only” a 4.3% GDP shrink and that was disastrous.
These dipshits will eventually figure out that Trump will lead us into economic ruin if things don’t change. Will they come to Jesus before it’s too late? I’d bet not. Problem with gauging America’s economy is that it’s so damned big, it’s hard to tell what policy effects are until way down the road. This thing doesn’t turn on a dime.
We’ve already trashed our allies trust and if Trump keels over tomorrow, they’re not going to suddenly start buying America again. The master of branding has fucked our brand.
The US has had relatively steady population growth for so long, all our normal ranges for economic indicators have an assumption of a growing population baked in, including what a healthy amount of GDP growth is - enough to both cover the prior GDP per person for the new people, and also have some productivity growth.
This year with all the immigration policy changes (and maybe some emigration pattern changes), projections are for a population decline. Which means potentially GDP could maintain or slightly improve on a per-capita basis, and yet decline overall.
The current policies are doing damage that will last at a minimum of decades, but I think it’s important to try to sort out the real damage from the weirdness of massive change. If we manage to get a majority of elected officials who actually want to do repairs, good analysis will be important to figuring out best bang for resources to focus on.
An economic podcast I listen to has covered how much foreign investment the US net trade imbalance has led to, for exactly that reason: foreigners had dollars from US entities buying more stuff than they sold, those dollars had to come back to the US, and investment ended up being a huge way that happened. If the trade imbalance actually reduces, likely that investment rate will be the first thing to drop. We’ve already seen hints of it with softened demand for Treasury bonds.
The entire “the Dollar being the reserve currency of the world” thing happened because of the US trade deficit.
It has been slowly reversing since the pandemics, and a lot faster now… What ironically means that whatever exports numbers those companies are getting, it’s inflated and unsustainable.
Inspired by this post (https://sh.itjust.works/post/43644825) with Nebraska’s GDP being in the shitter.
Those states are, LOL were, massive agricultural exporters, doubt other states with more flexible economies will get hit that hard. A 6% nationwide reduction would be absolute chaos. 2008 was “only” a 4.3% GDP shrink and that was disastrous.
These dipshits will eventually figure out that Trump will lead us into economic ruin if things don’t change. Will they come to Jesus before it’s too late? I’d bet not. Problem with gauging America’s economy is that it’s so damned big, it’s hard to tell what policy effects are until way down the road. This thing doesn’t turn on a dime.
We’ve already trashed our allies trust and if Trump keels over tomorrow, they’re not going to suddenly start buying America again. The master of branding has fucked our brand.
The US has had relatively steady population growth for so long, all our normal ranges for economic indicators have an assumption of a growing population baked in, including what a healthy amount of GDP growth is - enough to both cover the prior GDP per person for the new people, and also have some productivity growth.
This year with all the immigration policy changes (and maybe some emigration pattern changes), projections are for a population decline. Which means potentially GDP could maintain or slightly improve on a per-capita basis, and yet decline overall.
The current policies are doing damage that will last at a minimum of decades, but I think it’s important to try to sort out the real damage from the weirdness of massive change. If we manage to get a majority of elected officials who actually want to do repairs, good analysis will be important to figuring out best bang for resources to focus on.
Yeah… The thing is, if your country doesn’t import things, it has to stop exporting too because foreigners don’t print your money.
Adam Smith kinda of discovered that¹, but it’s too recent a thing for politicians to learn.
1 - Not with all the details, but he discovered the overall issue.
An economic podcast I listen to has covered how much foreign investment the US net trade imbalance has led to, for exactly that reason: foreigners had dollars from US entities buying more stuff than they sold, those dollars had to come back to the US, and investment ended up being a huge way that happened. If the trade imbalance actually reduces, likely that investment rate will be the first thing to drop. We’ve already seen hints of it with softened demand for Treasury bonds.
The entire “the Dollar being the reserve currency of the world” thing happened because of the US trade deficit.
It has been slowly reversing since the pandemics, and a lot faster now… What ironically means that whatever exports numbers those companies are getting, it’s inflated and unsustainable.